Scale-dependent approaches to modeling spatial epidemiology of chronic wasting disease

All rights reserved. No part of this e-book may be reproduced, in any form or by any means, without permission in writing from Utah Division of Wildlife Resources Acknowledgements appear on individual photos which constitutes a continuation of the copyright page. Scale-dependent approaches to modeling spatial epidemiology of chronic wasting disease This e-book is the product of a second workshop that was funded and promoted by the United States Geological Survey to enhance cooperation between states for the management of chronic wasting disease (CWD). The first workshop addressed issues surrounding the statistical design and collection of surveillance data for CWD. The second workshop, from which this document arose, followed logically from the first workshop and focused on appropriate methods for analysis, interpretation, and use of CWD surveillance and related epidemiology data. Consequently, the emphasis of this e-book is on modeling approaches to describe and gain insight of the spatial epidemiology of CWD. We designed this e-book for wildlife managers and biologists who are responsible for the surveillance of CWD in their state or agency. We chose spatial methods that are popular or common in the spatial epidemiology literature and evaluated them for their relevance to modeling CWD. Our opinion of the usefulness and relevance of each method was based on the type of field data commonly collected as part of CWD surveillance programs and what we know about CWD biology, ecology, and epidemiology. Specifically, we expected the field data to consist primarily of the infection status of a harvested or culled sample along with its date of collection (not date of infection), location, and demographic status. We evaluated methods in light of the fact that CWD does not appear to spread rapidly through wild populations, relative to more highly contagious viruses, and can be spread directly from animal to animal or indirectly through environmental contamination. We discovered that many of the well-published methods were developed for fast-spreading human diseases, such as influenza and measles. While these methods are applicable to fast spreading wildlife diseases, such as foot-and-mouth disease or West Nile virus, many are not likely to work well for CWD. Only limited data exist to evaluate geographic and spatial spread because many locations where we find CWD tend to be locations where samples have just been taken or sample sizes have just become large enough to have a high probability of detecting a low prevalence. Consequently, methods that work …